Will China conduct military drills around Taiwan in response to recent Tsai Ing-Wen visit to U.S.? | Manifold

Will China conduct military drills around Taiwan in response to recent Tsai Ing-Wen visit to U.S.?

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resolved Apr 8

Resolved

YES

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Based on the current declarations by China :

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-stages-combat-patrols-crosses-strait-median-line-taiwan-says-2023-03-31/

Will they actually conduct another series of military drills with the goal of intimidate Taiwan, similarly to what happened last August, after speaker Nancy Pelosi visit to Taipei?

collage by basquiat, fighter jets in the sky, chinese flag, pacific ocean map, taiwan

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#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇨🇳 China

#🇹🇼 Taiwan

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predicted YES

Update:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/08/china-to-hold-military-drills-around-taiwan-after-us-speaker-meeting

https://twitter.com/OfficialBen_L/status/1644482923591004160?s=20

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-inspect-ships-taiwan-strait-taiwan-says-wont-cooperate-2023-04-06/

predicted NO

@alby fwiw, in my market I won't be treating this as 'similar' to last August, and have betted no on my view that this is a replacement of those drills rather than a precursor

@JoshuaWilkes Yes, it's just a recent news about the topic, not saying this is considered to be 'military drills'

predicted NO

@alby got you. I do think this is awkwardly close to military drills. It's hard to build a rigorous resolution criteria here

A slightly different market

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/if-tsai-ingwen-meets-with-kevin-mcc

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