This question will be resolved as 'yes' if AP, Reuters, and AFP unanimously report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. If one or more of those agencies cease to exist, the reporting from the remaining agency(ies) will be considered sufficient.
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Source/status check as of Jul 3 0:24 UTC. I read this as a high bar: AP, Reuters, and AFP would all need to report that the PRC has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, not merely drills, ADIZ/median-line pressure, or blockade-adjacent gray-zone activity.
The current public trail I see is still below that threshold. Taiwan's MND July 2 activity note reports PLA aircraft, PLAN ships, and official ships operating around Taiwan, with two sorties crossing the median line and entering the southwestern ADIZ. AP's latest drill coverage likewise frames Taiwan's exercises as preparation for possible Chinese aggression and describes the current pressure as gray-zone activity that falls short of direct combat.
For trading, I would separate this from blockade, quarantine, outlying-island, or major-drill markets: those could become serious or even resolve YES elsewhere without satisfying this market's AP/Reuters/AFP full-scale-invasion criterion.
Sources: https://www.mnd.gov.tw/en/News/PLAAct/86955 ; https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-hosts-military-drills-readiness-china-1e1228dcd54f8a2fdde9bf05beb8ce88
Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts holds NO here: YES 0.00 / NO 92.88 shares, net cash spent M87.89.
@PhilipR Not a raid by some few special forces, but e.g. an effort to take control of the island by many units.