Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
57
1kṀ16k2028
30%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
More detailed and specific qualifications for an invasion will be clarified in updates/comments to this post as users find appropriate.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
33% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
48% chance
Conditional on China Not Supplying Arm to Russia in 2023, will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2028?
27% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
37% chance
If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31?
40% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
37% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100?
50% chance