Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
46
1kṀ13k2028
33%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
More detailed and specific qualifications for an invasion will be clarified in updates/comments to this post as users find appropriate.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?
26% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025
7% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2025?
6% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
30% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
7% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
7% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
35% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
42% chance
Sort by:
@MalachiteEagle to play devil's advocate, if the US and Russia are now faithful allies, maybe Russia can influence China to not take on America
@JussiVilleHeiskanen I think it's more likely that Russia will influence the US not to support Taiwan while China annexes it
@JussiVilleHeiskanen No, the balance in power in the US could shift further in favor of the oligarchy. China could annex Taiwan and handle the annexation in such a way that strengthens US oligarchs who sing their tune.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?
26% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025
7% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2025?
6% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
30% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
7% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
7% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
35% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
42% chance