Will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2023?

Question

Will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2023? This is a shorter-term version of the Metaculus question https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/. The same resolution criteria are used, meaning that this market will resolve as Yes if, at any point prior to January 1, 2024, one or both of these two conditions are true:

The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.

At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule.

#China #Taiwan #SouthChinaSea

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 1, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.