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Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
41
Ṁ1kṀ6.5k
2028
34%
chance

This question will be resolved as 'yes' if AP, Reuters, and AFP unanimously report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. If one or more of those agencies cease to exist, the reporting from the remaining agency(ies) will be considered sufficient.

Market context
Politics
Geopolitics
China Taiwan potential conflict
Taiwan
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