Basic
159
144k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2023? This is a shorter-term version of the Metaculus question https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/. The same resolution criteria are used, meaning that this market will resolve as Yes if, at any point prior to January 1, 2024, one or both of these two conditions are true:

  • The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.

  • At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule.


#China #Taiwan #SouthChinaSea

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Relevant Metaculus questions (not strictly the same resolution criteria but I'd be very surprised if they differed): https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13938/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-in-2023/

Easy arb:

What is people's take on semiconductor prohibitions?

predicted YES

@MP I don't have a strong view on them. It does seem to make an invasion more likely in the long run, but I imagine there are many intermediate steps of counter-prohibitions and negotiations first. For a short-dated market such as this one, I'm not sure how much to update my view.

predicted YES

I also created market for that, as I somehow missed this one (likely due to a different year indexing)

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