Will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2023?

Will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2023? This is a shorter-term version of the Metaculus question https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/. The same resolution criteria are used, meaning that this market will resolve as Yes if, at any point prior to January 1, 2024, one or both of these two conditions are true:

  • The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.

  • At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule.

#China #Taiwan #SouthChinaSea

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toms avatar
Tоmbought Ṁ5,000 of NO

Relevant Metaculus questions (not strictly the same resolution criteria but I'd be very surprised if they differed): https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13938/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-in-2023/

rockenots avatar
rockenotsbought Ṁ40 of NO

Easy arb:

MP avatar
MPbought Ṁ50 of NO

What is people's take on semiconductor prohibitions?

mrb avatar
Mr. Bis predicting YES at 7%

@MP I don't have a strong view on them. It does seem to make an invasion more likely in the long run, but I imagine there are many intermediate steps of counter-prohibitions and negotiations first. For a short-dated market such as this one, I'm not sure how much to update my view.

mrb avatar
Mr. Bis predicting YES at 7%
Accountdeletionrequested avatar
Account deletion requested

I also created market for that, as I somehow missed this one (likely due to a different year indexing)