In the 2016 presidential race, many Republicans vying for the party's nomination suspended their campaigns and withdrew from the race before the first primaries and caucuses had even started, including Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki.
In 2024, the first primary or caucus is scheduled to be the Iowa caucuses on the 15th of January, 2024. If Vivek Ramaswamy suspends his campaign before the first primary or caucus is held, this market will resolve to YES. If his campaign is still going on the day of the first primary or caucus, this market will resolve to NO.
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@Tripping Could you please clarify? The question states "first Republican presidential primary votes are cast" but the criteria talks about both "the first primary of caucus is held" and "the day of the first primary or caucus"
The deadline for sending out UOCAVA ballots has already passed, so the 'first votes' will be cast very shortly if they haven't already.
@MickBransfield If he suspends the day before the 2024 Iowa caucuses (assuming it is the first GOP primary/caucus) or earlier, then the market resolves yes. If he hasn't yet suspended and the day begins, the market resolves no. The date of the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses in 2024 is currently scheduled to be Jan 15th.
The title would be more detailed but at some point manifold made very strict title character limits. The description therefore lays out the actual resolution criteria.