Will Trump's Vice Presidential Running Mate be one of Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, Elise Stefanik, or Vivek Ramaswamy?
Aug 1

If you add up the chances these candidates have in current markets, it seems more likely than not that one of these four people will be Trump's choice for VP. But how likely exactly?

It's possible these candidates' odds have been individually distorted due to the complex nature of multiple choice markets with many options, where people bet on many long-shot candidates and few people are willing to buy those long-shots down below interest rates. A binary market grouping these candidates together might be informative. This market will be subsidized to incentivize accuracy.

This market resolves after Trump formally announces his running mate, or resolves N/A if he does not(such as if he stops running for president). It resolves YES if he chooses one of these four people, or NO if he chooses someone else.

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