Includes any real-money market listed on this platform, or a directly affiliated or subsidiary platform (but not a third party) offering real-money markets. If Manifold is acquired, changes its name, or expands into other business areas but otherwise has direct continuity with the platform as it exists today, that would also qualify.
Update: @jack has closed this market following some confusion and created a new market: /jack/will-manifold-have-a-usd-cash-prize. Read the comments below for details.
1,000
3.00I created a new closely related market that we can bet on:
See this thread for why: https://manifold.markets/SG/will-manifold-have-a-realmoney-mark#6q54h26bx8d
@Quroe no news other than we know the team is pushing hard to get sweeps out. I'm sure they're being legally cautious, which is part of the delay, but whatever system they're coming up with imo it's gonna try to be something that makes the biggest markets valuable. if they can, they will, and if they shouldn't they might anyway as a treat
@Stralor note that SG, James, and Jack are all net NO holders, so I wouldn't take my signal with any confidence
In the other market, someone pointed out this one, so here's a reverse link:
/SteveSokolowski/will-manifold-enable-realmoney-bett
My money is on NO for this one and YES for the other one, because the judge's ruling did not cover Presidential betting.
@SG As I understand it, a spice enabled market would NOT count as “real money market” for the purposes of this question? Or would it?
@SG imo you should strongly consider n/a this market, this is pretty silly.
At the very least update the title and description.
I am using my mod powers to close this market, I don't mean to be rude but imo it serves zero usefulness - in fact, hugely negative usefulness because it confuses people. I created a replacement here:
If you wish to address the confusion and reopen, feel free, but I'm not sure it being open is helpful at all.
I'll note that I now remember reading this comment thread 4 months ago, but I definitely did not remember while I was trading recently until people replied to it yesterday, and I'm sure many others never even saw this thread.
@Ziddletwix No, this market will resolve NO (assuming nothing changes), and it is important to the business for it to resolve so. Mods may not override this.
But I appreciate @jack closing the market and creating a new, more carefully worded market.
For context: I created this market initially when I was thinking about creating real money markets offshore. We decided not to go down that route and to have sweepstakes instead.
Yeah this all makes sense, although people who bet that sweepstakes would resolve this yes are understandably unhappy, the amount of mana bet is pretty small in the grand scheme of things. I would be fine with this market going forward if we added that note "sweepstakes is not real money" to the title, or leaving it closed until resolution is also fine.
Does the definition of "real-money market" require that the market itself be directly denominated in real money? Or would this market also resolve to YES if Manifold starts offering the ability to convert M to real money?
How would this market resolve if Manifold doesn't offer such a service, but a third party did and using that third-party service to convert to USD wasn't against the Manifold terms of service?