Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?
Nov 12

On the eve of election day, I will note down probabilities from the most popular Manifold market for each state's presidential, senate, and house election outcomes, as well as those of FiveThirtyEight. Territories are excluded. Races for which either lacks predictions will be excluded. Races that lack a market with at least 10 traders will also be excluded. Resolves YES iff Manifold's predictions have a better Brier score.

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How can Manifold be strictly worse than FiveThirtyEight, if Manifold could just copy their predictions?

@Bohaska Because they will probably not do so

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