Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?
19
93
Ṁ474Ṁ350
Nov 12
40%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
On the eve of election day, I will note down probabilities from the most popular Manifold market for each state's presidential, senate, and house election outcomes, as well as those of FiveThirtyEight. Territories are excluded. Races for which either lacks predictions will be excluded. Races that lack a market with at least 10 traders will also be excluded. Resolves YES iff Manifold's predictions have a better Brier score.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
Related questions
Will Manifold be more accurate than real-money markets in forecasting the 2024 election?
54% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
47% chance
Will the largest manifold market covering the US presidential election correctly predict the outcome of the election?
69% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
68% chance
Will a major newspaper cite/reference a Manifold prediction market by the 2024 election?
70% chance
Will Manifold add tabs (like the US Elections one) for other important elections this year?
23% chance
5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will Manifold users that respond to the poll asking if it will reach 500 votes by EOY 2024 predict correctly?
60% chance
Will Manifold be in the NYT again before the end of 2024?
61% chance
Will Manifold correctly call every state and district in the 2024 election? If not, how many do we get wrong?