Will Manifold have a USD cash prize market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election?
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Ṁ18kresolved Sep 18
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Resolves YES if Manifold has at least one market with real money (USD) prizes on the winner of the 2024 US presidential election, before November 5, 2024 (Election Day), Eastern Time. Otherwise NO.
The definition of "USD cash prize market" is the same as https://manifold.markets/jack/will-manifold-launch-real-money-pri
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Why is this market higher than the following market:
/SteveSokolowski/will-manifold-enable-realmoney-bett
Since the judge's ruling was specifically directed at Congressional betting, this market about Presidential betting should have a ceiling at the Congressional market.
@SteveSokolowski imo they are just badly priced. Not much liquidity, tons of adverse selection from insider trading, etc
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