Will Manifold have a USD cash prize market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election?

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resolved Sep 18

Resolved

YES

ALL

Resolves YES if Manifold has at least one market with real money (USD) prizes on the winner of the 2024 US presidential election, before November 5, 2024 (Election Day), Eastern Time. Otherwise NO.

The definition of "USD cash prize market" is the same as https://manifold.markets/jack/will-manifold-launch-real-money-pri

2024 US Presidential Election

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Resolves yes. Sweepstakes launched (meeting the criteria for cash prizes) and one of the first markets is the presidential election market

Why is this market higher than the following market:

/SteveSokolowski/will-manifold-enable-realmoney-bett

Since the judge's ruling was specifically directed at Congressional betting, this market about Presidential betting should have a ceiling at the Congressional market.

@SteveSokolowski imo they are just badly priced. Not much liquidity, tons of adverse selection from insider trading, etc

How does the 10% threshold work for this market? That is, your linked definition requires that someone be able to place a trade at 10% and then win roughly 9 times their bet after fees. I don’t imagine either candidate will get that low, so…

@polymathematic @jack

@polymathematic that just has to be possible in theory

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