Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal for US residents in 2025?

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resolved Sep 25

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From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

This question will resolve as Yes if, in the calendar year 2025, US residents can legally participate in at least one Polymarket or Manifold market using real money.

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The most valuable N/A I've ever got!

bought Ṁ20 NO

@Joshua @Tulip @brod @saulmunn Considering where the metacalculus market is putting the odds, you might want to cash out

@traders , the Metaculus market has not been re-resolved yet so I am reopening this one

@WalterMartin Metaculus resolved as "Ambiguous"

~~oh thank god~~ I mean that's the right call that was ambiguous as hell

@WalterMartin @mods unresolved on metaculus! Give me my money back

@NivlacM uh oh, yeah, @mods I'll need the assist on this one

@WalterMartin I assume Is a request to unresolve. If not, you can resolve it again.

It’ll stay closed until you open it or resolve

@Ziddletwix thank you!

@traders, I'm going to keep this closed for a day or so (and promise no shenanigans on my part on reopening). If Metaculus hasn't re-resolved by tomorrow evening PT, I'll reopen this.