In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
55%
chance

We did pretty well in this one. Can we keep it up?

Right now what I'd count as "large prediction markets" are PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket. (And maybe some others that I haven't heard of because I don't use them.) Others might emerge in the next 2 years. The final list of what markets count will be finalized a few weeks before the election.

Specifically, this is about predicting which states end up voting for which presidential candidate.

"top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets" means that you sort them all by overall accuracy, then if Manifold is within the top quarter of the list (rounded up), this resolves to YES.

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IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting NO at 47%
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
bought Ṁ100 of NO

Base rate isn't 25%, because of rounding, but it's lower than 50%.

StevenK avatar

if Manifold is within the top quarter of the list (rounded up)

Just to clarify: Is it a "yes" if there are three markets (including Manifold) and Manifold is number 1? What about if there are five markets (including Manifold) and Manifold is number 2?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting NO at 52%

@StevenK Yes to both.

StevenK avatar

@IsaacKing And if Manifold is the only large prediction market left, it's also a "yes", right?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting NO at 52%