We did pretty well in this one. Can we keep it up?

Right now what I'd count as "large prediction markets" are PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket. (And maybe some others that I haven't heard of because I don't use them.) Others might emerge in the next 2 years. The final list of what markets count will be finalized a few weeks before the election.

Specifically, this is about predicting which states end up voting for which presidential candidate.

"top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets" means that you sort them all by overall accuracy, then if Manifold is within the top quarter of the list (rounded up), this resolves to YES.

if Manifold is within the top quarter of the list (rounded up)

Just to clarify: Is it a "yes" if there are three markets (including Manifold) and Manifold is number 1? What about if there are five markets (including Manifold) and Manifold is number 2?

@IsaacKing And if Manifold is the only large prediction market left, it's also a "yes", right?