A year after real-money prediction markets are allowed in the US, I will run a poll on Manifold, asking if real-money markets overall create significantly more problems than non-real-money markets. This market resolves according to poll results.

If the date at which real-money prediction markets become legal in the US isn't consensual, for example due to legal technicalities, I may run a poll or defer to the resolution on markets about that.

I won't bet on this market. Feel free to ask any question, I'll try my best.