Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Basic
88
16k
2028
64%
chance

Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight.

This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.

To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.

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predicts NO

I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.

What if they don't purport it, but you're reasonably confident it's them anyway?

predicts NO

@chrisjbillington Well purport implies perhaps that at the very least the username or name is Nate Silver. I’m torn on whether or not I’d want to incentivize outing a private alt account. What do you think?

Edit: thought we were discussing my market. Carson can do whatever he wants with this one of course.

predicts NO

@Charlie I think there's a 54% chance it doesn't matter what I think :p

From the Manifold team’s meeting notes on Notion:

Seems like they’re aggressively pursuing him.

predicts NO

@oh OTOH the fact that they need to aggressively pursue him suggests he's not very interested.

Manifest has come and gone, and sadly Nate doesn't seem to have made an account.

predicts YES

@chrisjbillington He still has a few years, so the fact that he attended is still a YES signal (you're already treating it this way afaict, but worth noting).

Does anyone who was there know more about this?

Will it be a novelty, or will he catch the bug?

@JamesGrugett texted me that he’s coming to Manifest, and the website displays that as well. Hard to imagine he wouldn’t create a single market when there. https://www.manifestconference.net/speakers