Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?
34
1.1kṀ23k
2029
82%
chance

Resolves YES if the CFTC gives their approval for any real-money prediction market on the outcome of the 2028 US Presidential Election (the market itself doesn't need to have launched). Resolves NO if no such markets exist by the date of the election.

Predictions on Predictions
Prediction market
Prediction Markets General Discussion
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will a Wall St firm use prediction markets as an investment vehicle by July 14 2025
73% chance
Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?
42% chance
Will Trump legalize prediction markets?
83% chance
Will real money political prediction markets be legal before 2029 conditional on who wins the presidential election?
Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by the end of 2025?
61% chance
If Trump wins in 2024, will real money political prediction markets be legal before 2029?
66% chance
When will the USA legalise prediction markets for elections?
Will the CFTC ban derivative bets on US elections by the end of 2025?
43% chance
Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?
57% chance
Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind?
33% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy