Resolves YES if the CFTC gives their approval for any real-money prediction market on the outcome of the 2028 US Presidential Election (the market itself doesn't need to have launched). Resolves NO if no such markets exist by the date of the election.
Related questions
It’s important to remember why they denied it in the first place, which is the risk of insider trading by people affiliated with campaigns. Companies that make markets, manage money or provide investment advice need to preserve all communications for potential review by regulators. No such requirements exist for campaigns despite the obvious information advantage of being a candidate or running/working on a campaign. Until they come up with a solution for this, which may require new legislation, it’s extremely unlikely.
For comparison/arbitrage:
I think it's very possible. It's common in other countries and hasn't lead to anything crazy and people clearly want it. Kalshi is making more and more types of markets without complaint from the CFTC. And betting overall is on a big upswing. If things continue as they have been, it seems inevitable to me.
@strutheo It looks like this is one of those things where Manifold is trying to ask a really important question that they don't agree on internally 🤣