Will Manifold enable real-money betting on Congressional races?
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62
Ṁ33k
resolved Oct 3
Resolved
YES

On Saturday, September 7, a US judge ruled in favor of betting website Kalshi, allowing the site to begin legal prediction market trading on United States Congressional elections.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/are-you-ready-to-bet-on-u-s-elections-a-judges-ruling-opens-the-door-556abc73

Will Manifold follow the ruling and allow money to be earned through Prize Points or some other method?

This market will resolve to YES if, on or before November 5, 2024, Manifold enables a way to earn real money betting on Congressional races or control of Congress as a whole. The method may be through direct money betting, prize points, or any other way that allows a cash withdrawal.

Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.

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The markets below satisfy the requirements. At first, the only markets available were for Presidential races, but it seems like the recent court ruling caused Manifold to enable to Congressional markets.

The resolution is YES.

If someone sees a market that makes this market resolve YES, please help me and post it here.

bought Ṁ6,269 YES

@Arky this isn't a congressional race

Edit: still satisfied op conditions though

bought Ṁ100 NO

Huge spread between this and the real money presidential race market

@Yiddishe_Kupp1980 That makes perfect sense, because the ruling specifically targeted Congressional races.

@SteveSokolowski I think the difference is just because this market counts prize points markets while the other one does not

bought Ṁ500 NO

This question doesn't make a whole lot of sense since prize points can't be withdrawn for cash at all on Manifold (yet?).

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

@percentage correct, the question is whether markets with cash rewards will happen one way or another

@jack Not necessarily. This ruling was limited to Congressional races only. Likewise, this market is also limited to Congressional races.

@SteveSokolowski i should have been clearer, I'm saying it's about whether those will have cash rewards (since the comment asked about prize points not being withdrawable)