Will the largest manifold market covering the US presidential election correctly predict the outcome of the election? | Manifold

Will the largest manifold market covering the US presidential election correctly predict the outcome of the election?

Plus

40

Ṁ7969

Nov 5

50%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market cuts off on November 4th. Yes will pay out if the candidate with the largest percent chance of winning on the largest manifold market on November 4th is inaugurated president.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Meta-Forecasting

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How specifically will you resolve if the value of that market swings back and forth across 50% during November 4?

54% seems low. Feel like by the election it should be at least 60%

@ChinmayTheMathGuy if you feel that way place a bet, and make it 60%. put your money where your mouth is

by when?

bought Ṁ8 NO

@FakeMoney This market cuts off on November 4th. Yes will pay off if the candidate with the largest percent chance of winning on the largest manifold market on November 4th is inaugurated president.

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