Will we get AGI before 2030?
Basic
130
28k
2030
41%
chance

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.

Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2030

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Solar system exploration questions:

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-4a5c4940b285

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This is ambiguous.

Are we talking average human level? Competent at task human level? Expert human level? Best in the world human level?

@ChrisLeong This market was always going to be subjective, but some kind of additional explanation would be nice.

bought Ṁ30 YES

@NoRespect I'm on the lookout for a set of criteria that are "necessary but not sufficient", along those lines. Ideally a set of criteria that there is a broad consensus on. My sense is that the goalposts will continue to move in the same direction as they have up until now, so necessary criteria should remain relevant