Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?
48
1kṀ9721
2100
85%
chance

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.

Resolves as YES if such a system is created before we discover alien life.


AGI questions:

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2031

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2032

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2034

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2036

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2037

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2038

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2039

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2040

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2041

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/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048

Alien life discovery questions:

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-031ec0858fcc

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-cbfe304a2ed7

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-54f04dd10acb

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-5553c437e8a4

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-8c83c68daf1a

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-0e33b4a24ab0

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-2f90be5ca48d

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-10cdf89aac16

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-ab3eca7983aa

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-50f151c4102f

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-6615ab742cc6

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-e944d3f186ed

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-b0a07b306797

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-a01eba4fa0fb

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-df678746ea9a

Other reference points for AGI:

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover

Other reference points for discovery of alien life:

/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-aaddefa708d8

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-939ead04dfb1

This question includes but is not limited to the detection of biosignatures/technosignatures in our solar system, around other stars or distant galaxies.

If evidence of extra-terrestrial life is discovered on Earth, then it must clearly point to the past or present existence of life outside of Earth's biosphere. This lifeform must have existed continuously for at least 1 million years off-Earth.

If evidence of extra-terrestrial life is discovered elsewhere, then it must have existed continuously outside of Earth's biosphere for at least 1 million years in order to qualify.

If this discovery occurs in multiple steps, then the step that leads to a 90% consensus among the scientific community is considered the "discovery" in the context of this question.

The definition of life in this question includes systems capable of self-replication, storing information and evolving.

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lukresboughtṀ30NO

I am happy to put any amount of mana into this at 85%. If anyone wants to make a trade, I can even buy some mana.

@lukres Is there some secret you have knowledge of? 😄

@RemNi Perhaps I am the alien

@skibidist is the reasoning that if any aliens exist they will feel threatened by our ASI and show up to stop it?

@mariopasquato When I wrote the comment, I didn't realize people would start using AGI to describe systems lacking general intelligence. But if we take AGI to have the original meaning, something that can do stuff the way people do, I think it requires multiple breakthroughs of unknown difficulty to realize. While discovering alien life needs just a bit more sensitive telescopes (ELT will do, maybe) or, if we get lucky, can happen anytime while examining Mars or asteroids.

@skibidist it seems that you are assigning high probability to aliens actually existing, so for us it’s just a matter to find them

@mariopasquato I think it's kind of obvious and natural, which is why people call Fermi paradox a paradox. But it's hardly a paradox given we haven't yet had the means to have a good look.

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