Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2029
Here are markets with the same criteria:
Will we get AGI before 2024?NO
Will we get AGI before 2025?NO
Will we get AGI before 2026?3%
Will we get AGI before 2027?15%
Will we get AGI before 2028?30%
Will we get AGI before 2029?45% (this question)
Will we get AGI before 2030?56%
Will we get AGI before 2031?63%
Will we get AGI before 2032?66%
Will we get AGI before 2033?67%
Will we get AGI before 2034?73%
Will we get AGI before 2035?73%
Will we get AGI before 2036?72%
Will we get AGI before 2037?76%
Will we get AGI before 2038?77%
Will we get AGI before 2039?78%
Will we get AGI before 2040?80%
Will we get AGI before 2041?81%
Will we get AGI before 2042?83%
Will we get AGI before 2043?83%
Will we get AGI before 2044?84%
Will we get AGI before 2045?86%
Will we get AGI before 2046?86%
Will we get AGI before 2047?87%
Will we get AGI before 2048?88%
Related markets:
Will we get ASI before 2027?5%
Will we get ASI before 2028?8%
Will we get ASI before 2029?13%
Will we get ASI before 2030?22%
Will we get ASI before 2031?33%
Will we get ASI before 2032?38%
Will we get ASI before 2033?45%
Will we get ASI before 2034?49%
Will we get ASI before 2035?55%
Other questions for 2029:
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2029?86%
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2029?10%
Will we discover alien life before 2029?16%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2029?20%
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2029?10%
Other point of reference for AGI:
Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?47%
Will we get AGI before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?40%
Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?33%
Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?69%
Will we get AGI before we get room temperature superconductors?83%
Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?77%
Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?57%
Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?60%
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the median for AGI falls somewhere in 2028
the median for ASI falls somewhere in 2033
why do people think it will take 5 years between AGI and ASI ? Seems more likely to me that
1) once we see AGI emerge with x amount of inputs (i.e algorithms, data, compute, labor) we will have a huge incentive to massively increase investment to get ASI since ASI is way way more valuable.
2) AGI can automate ai research and make the transition to asi in 1 year.
can someone shed some light on this ?
@AkramChoudhary there are potentials for data walls, computational explosions and also, if AGI has been achieved when AI scaling has started to hit severe diminishing returns, it might be difficult to overcome quickly even with some level of RSI. If physical compute/energy needs become serious bottlenecks, that could really slow the takeoff.
That being said, I think <1 year and maybe about 5 years are probably the at least near the ends of the range for the gap between AGI and ASI, so 5 years implied median in the market seems too high for sure. Especially since an AGI median of ~2028/2029 is too soon for any kind of particularly harsh diminishing returns to bottleneck the takeoff that long.
@AkramChoudhary I think the race for the super is a massive undertaking, and is the major geopolitical play of 2027-2031. It is a project that absorbs vast amounts of state capacity. The real intelligence explosion requires hardware scaling.
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