Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) refers to a level of artificial intelligence that surpasses the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest, including scientific creativity, general wisdom, and social skills. Unlike Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which matches human capabilities, ASI exceeds them, demonstrating superior problem-solving and inventive skills, advanced learning and adaptive capabilities, and unparalleled reasoning and planning abilities. ASI embodies not only the ability to perform tasks that require human-like intelligence but also the capacity to achieve goals with efficiency and effectiveness far beyond human capabilities. It represents an evolution in AI, where machines are not just equal, but distinctly superior to the best human brains in every field, including scientific understanding, general knowledge, and emotional intelligence.
Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2030
Markets with the same criteria:
Will we get ASI before 2027?9%
Will we get ASI before 2028?12%
Will we get ASI before 2029?18%
Will we get ASI before 2030?23% (this question)
Will we get ASI before 2031?37%
Will we get ASI before 2032?45%
Will we get ASI before 2033?54%
Will we get ASI before 2034?57%
Will we get ASI before 2035?55%
Will we get ASI before 2036?72%
Related markets:
Will we get AGI before 2025?NO
Will we get AGI before 2026?4%
Will we get AGI before 2027?16%
Will we get AGI before 2028?36%
Will we get AGI before 2029?53%
Will we get AGI before 2030?59%
Will we get AGI before 2031?66%
Will we get AGI before 2032?67%
Will we get AGI before 2033?73%
Will we get AGI before 2034?76%
Will we get AGI before 2035?78%
Will we get AGI before 2036?79%
Will we get AGI before 2037?80%
Will we get AGI before 2038?81%
Will we get AGI before 2039?82%
Will we get AGI before 2040?83%
Will we get AGI before 2041?83%
Will we get AGI before 2042?84%
Will we get AGI before 2043?85%
Will we get AGI before 2044?85%
Will we get AGI before 2045?87%
Will we get AGI before 2046?88%
1,000the mana scrapers have finally found these markets. if asi happens then mana doesnt matter so theres a large incentive to bet against it. this is the only thing that could explain the discrepancy between this market and
https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-artificial-superintelligence-e?play=true
@AkramChoudhary Not exactly. I always bet in line with my true beliefs, but something about a market that automatically N/As just feels worse, so I'm reluctant to arbitrage or otherwise bet there.
Actually I'm considering betting no on this and not betting on that, since other people seem to also bet differently on these 2 markets. Unclear whether the difference is mainly due to the resolution timeframe, market creator, or something else, but I could see this market dipping in response to e.g. GPT-5 not impressing enough while that market remains stable?
You know what, I've convinced myself to bet on the other one somehow... XD
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?