Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2030?
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24
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2030
1.4%
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Resolves as YES if there is a Dyson Sphere around the Sun on January 1st 2030, capable of harnessing at least 1% of its power output. This artificial megastructure must at least be distributed in a ring around the Sun (i.e. it cannot be focused as a single or small (<50) finite number of large structures occupying 1% of the available angles), although it does not necessarily need to include other orbits (e.g. polar). If it occupies a ring around the sun, then both a swarm or a single monolithic structure qualify in the context of this question.

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Image credits: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dyson_Sphere_Render.png

Image source: Image courtesy of Kevin M. Gill on Flickr, licensed under CC BY 2.0. Available at: https://flickr.com/photos/53460575@N03/29401385502

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I assume this will also resolve YES if more than 1% is harnessed through other means. It might be that we have technology much more advanced than Dyson spheres at some point in the next 50 years.

@Nikola It would be weird if this market was trying to capture our expansion/harnessing of the Sun's power, and resolved YES for using something similar to a dyson sphere, but "wrapped around" to NO if we used something more advanced than a dyson sphere

@Nikola Can you go into more detail about what you mean here?

@RemNiFHfMN Like, if we have superintelligence, it might be that we harness the Sun's energy through something different from a Dyson sphere. Maybe star lifting, maybe something that isn't imaginable to us right now. I think that, if this market is about "how much energy will humanity or our decendants have access to", then I think this should resolve YES based on the percentage of energy harnessed, not based on the way it is done.

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