Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?
57
389
1.3k
2050
60%
chance

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.

Resolves as YES if we get AGI before a human ventures onto the Martian surface.

AGI questions:

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2031

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2032

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2034

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2036

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2037

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2038

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2039

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2040

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2041

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2042

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2043

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2044

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048

Human venture onto Martian surface questions:

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-cbd9e461335b

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-f591cd57e406

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-df3792742b47

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-046bbe924d16

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-285b5811deab

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-0aa3d5d0ba0f

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-aaa7b812182d

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-46a10618ba56

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-82852f7eae62

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-db934d5b874e

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-79e7a1611b03

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-ceaed9045812

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-15fec4a3f4e6

Mars orbit questions:

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3a9ca9fc5ea2

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-76d02d43aa2c

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3fcd58236f90

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-5bf1aa9694b5

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-705743676ab6

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-0b9113192c85

Other reference points for AGI:

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 (this question)

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio

Other reference points for human venture on Mars:

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-585b179f8ac3

/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-039aff3aa191

To meet the criteria, the human must be awake for at least ten continuous minutes on the surface of Mars outside of a spacecraft. The human may be wearing a pressure suit or similar device. Furthermore, during this awake period, the human's heart rate must not drop below 30 beats per minute. The safe return of the human is not a necessary condition for the market to resolve to YES. If the human is in a state of suspended animation or asleep at the time of leaving the spacecraft to venture onto the Martian surface, they must be successfully resuscitated or woken up for at least 10 continuous minutes before returning to the spacecraft.

The human does not necessarily need to walk, and can use a wheelchair or some other form of mobility device to navigate the Martian surface. They must be outside of the spacecraft and with either their body or a pressure suit exposed to the Martian atmosphere (or vacuum if mars no longer possesses one on this date) in order to fulfill the criteria of this question. If the human is wearing a pressure suit, then the volume of the human must occupy at minimum 30% of the volume of the pressure suit in order for it to count as a pressure suit and not a spacecraft/vehicle. Either the human's body or pressure suit must make contact with the Martian surface. If the human exits the craft and enters a space underneath the Martian surface, such as a cavern or an underground base, then this does not qualify as venturing out onto the Martian surface. In the case that the human is outside of the spacecraft without a pressure suit, then they must survive on the Martian surface for at least 10 continuous minutes and remain awake with a heartrate of at least 30bpm during that time.

The human venturing onto the Martian surface must possess both a functioning brain and heart, with limited alterations. These vital organs may have undergone chemical, mechanical, or electronic modifications, provided that these enhancements do not significantly alter the organ's functioning compared to that of a typical human. Complete modification or replacement of any other organ in the human's body, including those enabling the human to survive on the surface of Mars without a pressure suit, is permissible within the context of this question. The human must also have a mass of less than 250kg (can be a cyborg but with some limits).

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