Will we get AGI before 2036?
Standard
76
Ṁ6032
2036
70%
chance

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.

Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2036

Here are markets with the same criteria:

/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 (this question)

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048

Related markets:

/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027

/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033

/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034

/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035

Other questions for 2036:

/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-bca2fe47409b

/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-lunar

/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-50f151c4102f

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff

/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-9cd12d2b6612

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-d3d4a061f891

Other points of reference for AGI:

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid

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If you're making a set of markets with identical criteria but different dates, then the unlinked multiple choice market format works really well!

Also, you can embed the market with a % display if you want (type '%' and then without a space start typing the market name to search), like this: /RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 .

predicts YES

@EvanDaniel Thanks!