Resolves as YES if 95% of individuals diagnosed with cancer are alive and cancer-free (complete remission) 18 months after initial diagnosis, in a least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy.
In order for this question to resolve as YES, there has to be credible evidence in each qualifying country that this threshold has been reached. This evidence (e.g. clinical studies) must take into consideration patients diagnosed with cancer at least 18 months prior to January 1st 2030.
Questions with the same criteria:
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-bf2acb801224
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-e2cd2abbbed6
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-92c17acb77f1
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7e534a91d188
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7ddfe58feb89
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor (this question)
/RemNi/will-we-have-a-cure-for-cancer-befo
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ffd180fe8e3d
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7973daa750f9
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-06bd353512dc
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-8ae988ef1cac
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-d3d4a061f891
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-5d430e6e7829
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-99db0a1a6f37
Numeric market:
/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-a-cure-for-canc
Other questions for 2030:
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030
/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2030
/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-59822776e416
/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-f0c1a341f8ea
/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39
/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-35fc023d619f
/RemNi/will-1-million-humanoid-robots-be-m
/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440
Other reference points for cure for cancer:
/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-we
/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-939ead04dfb1
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ba35c785123c
The cohorts considered in these studies must be statistically representative of that country's population.
1,000What would have to be true in three and a half years for 95% of all cancer patients to be alive and in complete remission at 18 months, in four countries at once: a treatment that works across tumour types would need to be approved, reimbursed and in routine use by about mid-2028 so that the 18-month follow-up falls before March 2030. Nothing in the registries fits that: today's US five-year relative survival across all cancers is about 69% (SEER), the first AI-designed oncology candidates reach Phase 1 at the end of 2026 (Isomorphic), the most-hyped broad-spectrum small molecule (AOH1996) is still in Phase 1 with no Phase 2, and the personalized mRNA vaccine story of 2025 was one dog with a partial response. That dog case is, however, the honest picture of the pace: dogs with spontaneous cancers are where a new agent shows an in-vivo effect in months (the NCI runs a Comparative Oncology Trials Consortium for this), which is also why aging drugs are being tested for lifespan in dogs first; registry (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/trials/
