Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.

Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2038

Here are markets with the same criteria:

Will we get AGI before 2024?NO‌

Will we get AGI before 2025?NO‌

Will we get AGI before 2026?4%‌

Will we get AGI before 2027?16%‌

Will we get AGI before 2028?36%‌

Will we get AGI before 2029?53%‌

Will we get AGI before 2030?59%‌
Will we get AGI before 2031?66%‌

Will we get AGI before 2032?67%‌

Will we get AGI before 2033?73%‌

Will we get AGI before 2034?76%‌

Will we get AGI before 2035?78%‌

Will we get AGI before 2036?79%‌

Will we get AGI before 2037?80%‌

Will we get AGI before 2038?81%‌ (this question)

Will we get AGI before 2039?82%‌

Will we get AGI before 2040?83%‌

Will we get AGI before 2041?83%‌

Will we get AGI before 2042?84%‌

Will we get AGI before 2043?85%‌

Will we get AGI before 2044?85%‌

Will we get AGI before 2045?87%‌

Will we get AGI before 2046?88%‌

Will we get AGI before 2047?89%‌

Will we get AGI before 2048?90%‌

Related markets:

Will we get ASI before 2027?8%‌

Will we get ASI before 2028?12%‌

Will we get ASI before 2029?18%‌

Will we get ASI before 2030?23%‌

Will we get ASI before 2031?37%‌

Will we get ASI before 2032?45%‌

Will we get ASI before 2033?54%‌

Will we get ASI before 2034?57%‌

Will we get ASI before 2035?55%‌

Other questions for 2038:

Will a human walk on Mars before 2038?54%‌

Will we discover alien life before 2038?19%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2038?62%‌

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2038?49%‌

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2038?49%‌

Other reference points for AGI:

Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?40%‌

Will we get AGI before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?40%‌

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?33%‌

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?69%‌

Will we get AGI before we get room temperature superconductors?83%‌

Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?85%‌

Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?56%‌

Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?60%‌