the median for AGI falls somewhere in 2028

the median for ASI falls somewhere in 2033

why do people think it will take 5 years between AGI and ASI ? Seems more likely to me that

1) once we see AGI emerge with x amount of inputs (i.e algorithms, data, compute, labor) we will have a huge incentive to massively increase investment to get ASI since ASI is way way more valuable.

2) AGI can automate ai research and make the transition to asi in 1 year.

can someone shed some light on this ?

@AkramChoudhary there are potentials for data walls, computational explosions and also, if AGI has been achieved when AI scaling has started to hit severe diminishing returns, it might be difficult to overcome quickly even with some level of RSI. If physical compute/energy needs become serious bottlenecks, that could really slow the takeoff.

That being said, I think <1 year and maybe about 5 years are probably the at least near the ends of the range for the gap between AGI and ASI, so 5 years implied median in the market seems too high for sure. Especially since an AGI median of ~2028/2029 is too soon for any kind of particularly harsh diminishing returns to bottleneck the takeoff that long.

Are there any decent benchmarks for agents?

@ElliotDavies

@ElliotDavies closest ones currently existing

@Siebe Thank-you!

Arb

@MingCat he might die ofc