Resolves as YES if we discover strong evidence of past or present extra-terrestrial life before January 1st 2029.

This question includes but is not limited to the detection of biosignatures/technosignatures in our solar system, around other stars or distant galaxies.

Questions with the same criteria:





/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-8c83c68daf1a (this question)













Other questions for 2029:







Other reference points for the discovery of alien life:




If evidence of extra-terrestrial life is discovered on Earth, then it must clearly point to the past or present existence of life outside of Earth's biosphere. This lifeform must have existed continuously for at least 1 million years off-Earth.

If evidence of extra-terrestrial life is discovered elsewhere, then it must have existed continuously outside of Earth's biosphere for at least 1 million years in order to qualify.

If this discovery occurs in multiple steps, then the step that leads to a 90% consensus among the scientific community is considered the "discovery" in the context of this question.

The definition of life in this question includes systems capable of self-replication, storing information and evolving.

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Interesting how the probability goes down instead of up, even though "before 2032" strictly includes all others. Is this market inefficiency, or an instance of the conjunction fallacy?

@Sjlver it will stabilise, when the market is irrational that means there's an opportunity to make mana. Mostly it's irrational right now because I added questions quickly. Usually I wait at least 24 hours between each, which helps keep everything consistent.

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