Will we get fusion reactors before 2029?
54
308
930
2029
20%
chance

Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2029 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).

Questions with the same criteria:

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14 (this question)

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-02fec46476dd

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a34a5044ccca

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-9594f28b5777

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-719c22dafd13

Numeric market:

/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors

Other reference points for fusion reactors:

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-585b179f8ac3

Other questions for 2029:

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed

/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2029

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-7e6517a06d7e

/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-7d562d338323

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-8c83c68daf1a

/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-7b1d4b5ec34

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7ddfe58feb89

Engineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven

The fusion reactor must have been built by human civilization or one of its descendants in order to qualify in the context of this question.

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:

it's remotely possible for toy reactor engineering breakeven with D-T, but that fuel won't scale and any other fuel won't breakeven

@JonathanRay doesn't the temperature have to get super high?

@RemNi with other fuels you need a much higher temperature and the radiative losses scale by a power law

@JonathanRay Can you explain this in more detail?