Will Israel invade Rafah in April 2024?
Will Israel invade Rafah in April 2024?
92
1.2kṀ22kresolved Apr 30
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves as Yes if an official IDF spokesperson declares the IDF has entered the city of Rafah en masse in Gaza.
Surgical raids of limited scope will not count, only a large scale clearing operation. If there is no announcement by the IDF but there is overwhelming video evidence, that will be sufficient for Yes. If resolution is very murky as the month ends, up to a week will be taken after market close to wait for clearer evidence.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ2,066 | |
2 | Ṁ321 | |
3 | Ṁ98 | |
4 | Ṁ90 | |
5 | Ṁ73 |
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Iran attack US military sites before July 1, 2025?
29% chance
🇮🇱Israel-Iran🇮🇷 war ends before July 2025?
88% chance
Will Fordow be put out of commission by the end ofJuly? (Israel-Iran Conflict)
74% chance
How many Israelis will die from Iranian counter attacks in June
World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027
Israel-Iran 2025 war prop bets
When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Will there be a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal in June 2025?
3% chance
Iran-Israel ceasefire holds without major re-escalation until July 23, 2025
79% chance
Will there still be Israeli hostages in Gaza, by the end of 2025
40% chance