Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official ceasefire or peace agreement between Israel and Iran is publicly announced and takes effect before July 1, 2025. The announcement must come from the governments of both nations or be confirmed by reputable international organizations such as the United Nations. If no such agreement is in place by that date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

As of June 21, 2025, Israel and Iran are engaged in active military conflict. On June 13, 2025, Israel initiated Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and military infrastructure. In response, Iran launched missile and drone attacks against Israeli targets. The conflict has resulted in significant casualties and heightened regional tensions. (apnews.com)

Considerations

Given the current intensity of hostilities and the absence of ongoing diplomatic negotiations, the likelihood of a ceasefire or peace agreement being established before July 1, 2025, appears low. Traders should monitor official communications from both governments and international bodies for any developments indicating a move toward de-escalation.

• Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For a ceasefire to resolve to YES, it must meet the following conditions:

  • It must be largely in effect, meaning minor violations are permissible.

  • The creator will wait one week after the ceasefire is announced to assess its effectiveness. (Edit - I meant a week after closing date)

  • The determination will be based on the media consensus at that one-week mark.

• Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For a ceasefire to resolve to YES, it must meet the following conditions:

  • It must be largely in effect, meaning minor violations are permissible.

  • The creator will wait one week after the closing date to assess its effectiveness.

  • The determination will be based on the media consensus at that one-week mark.

• Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user's question, the creator clarified that the 'media consensus' criterion is used to judge if an officially announced ceasefire was largely intact.

  • This evaluation will take place one week after the market's closing date.

  • The purpose is to determine if the ceasefire has held, allowing for minor violations.