Will Iran attack US military sites before July 1, 2025?
154
1kṀ39k
resolved Jul 11
Resolved
YES
95

If they only miss, it doesn't count.

  • Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): An attack will only count if a missile is not considered off-target.

  • Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user's scenario, the creator confirmed that an attack will count as a hit for a YES resolution if it misses its specific intended target (e.g., a hangar) but hits another valuable asset on the military site (e.g., an aircraft).

  • Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): An attack will be considered a miss if the missile is intercepted.

  • Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated they will use satellite imagery as a source of evidence to resolve the market.

  • Update 2025-07-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user question, the creator has specified the following:

    • An impact inside the perimeter of a US military site will count as an attack, even if no valuable target is hit.

    • If satellite imagery is not available, the market will be resolved based on an assessment of press claims.

  • Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that, pending confirmation of news reports, the market will resolve to YES.

  • Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that the provided evidence is sufficient and they will now resolve the market.

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