Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by June 30, 2025, both Israel and Hamas officially announce a ceasefire and hostage exchange agreement. The announcement must be made through official channels, such as government press releases or statements from recognized spokespersons. If no such agreement is announced by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

As of early June 2025, negotiations between Israel and Hamas have been ongoing, with various proposals and amendments being discussed. Hamas has recently proposed changes to a U.S.-backed temporary ceasefire plan, seeking a permanent ceasefire, Israeli troop withdrawal, and unrestricted humanitarian aid to Gaza. In exchange, Hamas has offered to release 10 hostages and the remains of 18 others for over 1,200 Palestinian prisoners. However, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff has deemed Hamas's response "totally unacceptable." (reuters.com)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has confirmed agreement with the original U.S. proposal and accused Hamas of persistent rejection. Meanwhile, Israel's military operations in Gaza continue, with recent claims of the death of Hamas Gaza chief Mohammad Sinwar. The humanitarian situation in Gaza has severely worsened under an Israeli blockade, with aid looting driven by desperation and famine risks highlighted by UN agencies. (reuters.com)

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak has urged current leadership to support a U.S.-backed hostage release and Gaza ceasefire deal, aligning with Donald Trump's vision for a normalized Middle East. Barak criticizes Prime Minister Netanyahu for prioritizing political survival over national security and moral responsibility, accusing him of prolonging the Gaza conflict to avoid legal and political repercussions. (time.com)

Considerations

Traders should monitor official statements from both Israeli and Hamas representatives, as well as reports from credible news outlets, to stay informed about the progress of negotiations. The complex political dynamics and humanitarian concerns in the region may influence the likelihood of an agreement being reached within the specified timeframe.