Following October 7 events, there are currently 101 Israeli hostages in Gaza strip.
This question resolve YES if at the end of 2025, the Wikipedia page of Israel Hamas Hostage Crisis, say that there is at least one Israeli hostage in Gaza that were abducted in oct 7 (not including the 4 abducted earlier).
Otherwise, this question will resolve as NO.
If there are overwelming evidence (according to global media) that all the hostages are dead, this will also resolve as no.
Update 2025-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Details:
To resolve as NO, there must be clear evidence such as official declarations from the state of Israel stating that all remaining hostages are dead, or definitive actions by Hamas indicating no live hostages remain.
If Hamas claims to still have live hostages and there is no contradictory evidence, the market will resolve as YES.
Update 2025-10-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will NOT resolve immediately despite all known living hostages being freed. Creator acknowledges the possibility that a supposedly "dead" hostage could be announced as alive after the second phase of the deal, though considers this extremely unlikely. Creator is considering resolving NO now but has not yet done so.
Update 2025-10-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will NOT resolve immediately despite CNN report that all living hostages have been freed. Creator does not consider the CNN report as "overwhelming evidence that all the hostages are dead" and suspects Hamas may hold some hostages alive and later provide evidence of their deaths. Market will wait longer before resolving.
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@BP17b6 since it was to resolve No if all hostages were confirmed dead, it makes sense that it also resolves that way if all living hostages have been freed (and only the deceased remain there).
I the market description it says a that if all the remaining hostages are dead the market will resolve as no. Since currently both sides refer the remaining hostages as dead, this is a NO.
CNN: "For the first time in more than two years, Hamas and its allies in Gaza are not holding any living hostages. All of the 20 hostages who were still alive and held in Gaza are now in Israeli custody."(https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-hamas-gaza-hostages-ceasefire-10-13-25)
i guess this can either resolve now, or we wait three months to see of hamas takes one of the same people as october 7th hostage again?
@brod
> hamas takes one of the same people as october 7th hostage again
One could argue that the title says "Will there still be Israeli hostages..." - so taking one of them hostage again should not qualify, because that's an "again", not a "still" 😉
Anyway, should resolve NO now.
There is another possibility, one of the supposedly "dead" hostages, will be announced as alive after the second phase of the deal.
I think this is extremely unlikely, and I do consider resolve it right now as NO
@brod
i dont consider this CNN report as "overwhelming evidence that all the hostages are dead"
I suspect that Hamas holds some of them alive and later on will provide evidence that they are dead. I think its very unlikely (i sold my yes), but since it is a possibility, I think we should wait a bit more.
@CarmelHadar Some remains may never be found. What's the timeline when you plan to resolve this market?
@CarmelHadar It's not just one report, they have been confirmed dead by Israel for months. Ofc there's always some small chance of wrong intelligence, but this is not something ppl are holding out hope for
@CarmelHadar Actually, not quite! 23 out of the 24 have indeed been confirmed dead long ago, but there is still one, Tamir Nimrodi, who is believed dead but without full confirmation. Sorry for the misinfo!
“Hamas plans to release all 20 living hostages this weekend, people familiar with the matter told The Associated Press, while the Israeli military will begin a withdrawal from the majority of Gaza.”
Hope this is true!
@JaundicedBaboon another related market (if there is a ceasefire, releasing the hostages in stages will maintain it)
https://manifold.markets/VonGadke/gaza-ceasefire-in-2025?r=Q2h1bWNodWx1bQ