Following October 7 events, there are currently 101 Israeli hostages in Gaza strip.
This question resolve YES if at the end of 2025, the Wikipedia page of Israel Hamas Hostage Crisis, say that there is at least one Israeli hostage in Gaza that were abducted in oct 7 (not including the 4 abducted earlier).
Otherwise, this question will resolve as NO.
If there are overwelming evidence (according to global media) that all the hostages are dead, this will also resolve as no.
Update 2025-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Details:
To resolve as NO, there must be clear evidence such as official declarations from the state of Israel stating that all remaining hostages are dead, or definitive actions by Hamas indicating no live hostages remain.
If Hamas claims to still have live hostages and there is no contradictory evidence, the market will resolve as YES.
1,000People are also trading
@JaundicedBaboon another related market (if there is a ceasefire, releasing the hostages in stages will maintain it)
https://manifold.markets/VonGadke/gaza-ceasefire-in-2025?r=Q2h1bWNodWx1bQ
@PoliticalEconomyPK
do you think? Give us your analysis of the results of the assassination. i think it can go both ways.
Khalil al-Hayya was part of the reason that the negotiation was stuck, he didnt have skin in the game, and he didnt care that the war will be long.
@CarmelHadar I actually doubt anyone is a hindrance to negotiations, solely because we have heard this before. Exactly each time after each of the sinwar brothers got killed. Even then israeli journalists were saying this would be good for negotiations.
@PoliticalEconomyPK
look, i dont think that full return of the hostages is possible anyway (you can see my bets), its against the motives of the negotiators, but i do think the assassination increases the probability of a deal (probably partial).
but they are religious fanatics, so who knows.
@CarmelHadar I think the biggest obstacle right now is Netanyahu’s coalition. From Israel’s side, it feels like a deliberate choice to hold on to power instead of putting people first. That choice has already cost lives on both sides and dragged out the war for months. Without the pressure from his far-right partners, a deal might have been possible much earlier. We’ve already seen several near-missed agreements in 2025 that could have changed the course of things.
I am far from far right, and I do not think that the current agreement is something that Israel can accept.
The current terms that Hamas has agreed upon, are ones that keeps him on power, and allow him to resupply his weapon stocks later. Israel cannot accept that if they want to live peacefully. It's irrational to only think short term, and accept such a deal.
The reason I've open this market is to show how people delude themselves that a full deal is possible. People prefer wishful thinking over understanding and analyzing the motives and interest. Hamas cannot accept a full deal, because that leaves him with zero leverage. It's irrational of them to give up all thier cards (assuming that they don't care much of the suffering of their people)
@CarmelHadar to be clear, can you clarify what you mean by "current terms" because there are competing claims online where people are saying one party is agreeing and the other is not
Of course there will. The savages will never agree to release them all, and international pressure will step in to protect the baby-torturers and stop Israel rescuing the hostages from them.
@ShakedKoplewitz Is it wrong to say they already agreed to release them all, but Israel breaking the ceasefire has jeopardized that agreement?
@GazDownright
they have no motive to fullfill such an agreement. they will always want to have some kind of leverage, if they give the last one they are dead.
Anyway, if you read the agreement, you would knew that both sides knew that only the first part will happen. and the promise for later negotiation is just for the media, and for people like you, who are only half-listening to the story. the other part of "releasing all the hostages and end the war" was so vague that any intelligent and experienced person would know that can never happen. so its quite funny to say that Israel broke the agreement (also, Hamas broke it many time during the deal, if you want i can show you, its just that your media sources doesnt register that).
anyway, the whole point of this market is to show that hamas will never release the last hostage, they will always keep some. and so far it proves my point precisely
@Shai yeah i figured, what i actually meant was:
I don't see a reason to update my bet following Trump statements.
To be clear, this question specifically relates to the people who were made hostage on october 7th 2023. Not anyone already a hostage before October 7th. Right?
Also, if on 31st December 2023 there is/are hostage(s) in gaza but its clear to everyone that there arent any alive hostages, how then will you resolve?
Yes, I think I made that clear, this does not include hostages before Oct 7.
I will assume you meant 31 Dec 25.
In that case it will be reslolve as NO. But it should be quite clear, (something like state of Israel post official declaration that all the remaining are dead, or Hamas do something like that, if it's still under dispute, and Hamas will claim they still have live hostages, and there no contradictory evidence, it will resolve as YES)
@PoliticalEconomyPK Wait. Is this only about live hostages? If so, you should make that clear in the title and the description.
@smokey
it seems that Hamas fighters found their uniforms, after they couldn't find them since the first day of the war. interesting.
@smokey it's interesting the contrast between how well Hamas treats Israeli hostages (even when they're literally idf) versus how poorly Israel treats palestinian hostages (even when they're obviously innocent children)
@Ammar These girls report sleeping on the floor over long periods, eating as little as one pita a day and being psychologically tortured by being told Israel has been completely destroyed. One of them was held alone in a tunnel.
And this is just what they've opened up about in the few days since they've been released...
I understand you want Palestinians to be treated better by the IDF, and I do too, but lying about Hamas treating hostages well is gross.
@Shai israel bombs most homes and severely limits food from trying to enter gaza. Hamas has to sleep on the floors and eat only a piece of bread a day. Do you expect their hostages to be in mansions and offer buffets?
While in israel rape, amputations, and literal murder of Palestinian hostages with no link to Hamas, many are children.
I'm not steel manning your point, but I don't think I can try while remaining honest. The context is "the contrast between how well Hamas treats Israeli hostages (even when they're literally idf) versus how poorly Israel treats Palestinian hostages". If you're way around that is to focus on the hostages sleeping on the floor likely due to Israel bombing homes, I'm not sure there's room for a productive conversation.
@Ammar What you said simply isn't true. Israel allows hundreds of humanitarian aid trucks to enter Gaza daily, many of which are raided by Hamas, who limit civilian access to them. So no, Hamas members do not "eat only a piece of bread a day".
Israel does not hold Palestinian "hostages". Every single prisoner is either a terrorist with blood on their hands, someone who attempted a terrorist attack, or someone who conspired to commit acts of terror. Even the women and children. (See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pisgat_Ze%27ev_stabbings, https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesofisrael.com/man-hurt-in-jerusalem-terror-stabbing-palestinian-teen-attacker-caught/amp/, https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/palestinian-terrorism/israeli-girl-killed-in-bed-after-stabbing-attack/)
There are also Jewish settlers who are considered terrorists by Israel and up until recently were arrested in the same process.
I don't think you realize what is happening here. Israelis have to deal with stabbing attacks on a daily basis. Sometimes reaching 3 attacks per day.
Hamas is a genocidal terrorist organization, and we saw well in October 7 that their goal is to kill as many Jews as possible. Would you rather we let them continue arming until they succeed?
For those on the sidelines observing, and for those contemplating commenting, google “hasbara” and read some of the articles about volunteers who collaborate on social media and even use dedicated apps to submit and receive crowdsource-alerts and “respond” to unfriendly coverage in order to manufacture consent.
@Kamie
I cant see your point, every organization\country has a PR department. Hasbara is literally PR.
can you explain what is the problem with that?
@Kamie unfortunately a large percentage of the israeli (not Jewish specifically) population is basically hasbara-light due to the propaganda bubble they're stuck in. Fortunately, my Israeli (specifically Israeli, not Jewish) friends outside of the country seem to be a lot more grounded in reality.
Online, ask an Israeli to describe Hamas, they'll end up describing Israel's actions.
I’m not going to get in an “argument” about this because this kind of thing is a spectator sport and I don’t feel like debating a continual series of new usernames who are “just asking questions” and misinterpreting what I’m saying. My post was intended as a warning.
My point about hasbara is that it’s beautifully recursive. It, and the meta-context, and the concept pointed to by the word are all finely-tuned tools for manipulating public opinion, in entirely guileless and unrepentant hands who (tragically for all of us) genuinely feel an intense and chronic need to use it and more.
It’s a workshopped word for going out and lying, from the world stage to locally. The form the “PR” takes that’s relevant here is a bunch of people scouring the internet looking for “bad views” or “inconvenient information” to respond to. It’s certainly a well-PR’d word, I’ll give you that. Your response of “everyone does PR, what’s wrong with that” is well-practiced, I’ll give you that too.
And that’s my point. Nobody here is going to change their mind about anything because any lines of argumentation, dodges, misinterpretation of positions, etc. are cynically crafted and refined over thousands of interactions to portray the person and their perspective as the reasonable individual to anyone else watching. Discussions about these topics are impossible to have online because of hasbara.
This is a warning to anyone who’s genuinely hoping they can change someone’s mind here, that the environment they think they’re in isn’t, there are very scarce honest actors in either side of this topic. It’s a warning that there’s no point getting involved in these discussions because the counterparty nearly always behaves a certain way. It’s a warning to ignore the comments no matter how incendiary a statement might be, especially if that statement feels comically wrong, because it’s a trap to make another public display to sway opinion.
Don’t feed the trolls.
@Kamie
you wrote "I dont want to hear any arguments" with many words, it doesnt make it sophiciticated because you wrote it in many words.
your comment replied @BaryLevy , he is definitely not a troll or random username, you can see his track record and how active he is. he also brought a good arguments, if you just dismiss it by saying "Hasbasra", it doesn't make you look smarter.
So all your fancy talks are just clever way to say, "i will never change my mind about anything using reason".
I didn’t say “I don’t want to hear any arguments” I said “there’s no point in anyone who’s looking at these comments arguing with them, because this is a spectator sport, and nobody in these arguments intend to change their mind, they’re just going to intentionally misread what each other says and then respond to that” but my point exactly.
I didn’t say they were a troll or a random username. In fact, the astute reader will note I didn’t mention them at all. If I were to think it was worth my time to reply to them, I’d do something like link Twitter threads of people celebrating videos of Israeli protesters breaking into aid transports and destroying the contents, or camping outside the gates to block aid. Of course, the next response would be claiming something like “those are a minority, or a deepfake, or a false flag” or “that aid got through anyway after the video, trust me bro” or “well that aid was trucks of water bottles being delivered due to Israel using explosives to demolish their water treatment plants, and we’re talking about bread not water so that has nothing to do with what I said about Palestinians having supplies and refusing to share them with their hostages.” or some other motivated drivel.
If I were pressed to make some kind of response at that point, I might say something like “Israel claims all the people they arrest are terrorists so nobody can claim they’re hostages, but they also had an incident a bit ago where a prisoner was gangraped in a clearly practiced manner by the guards at Sde Teiman and, unusually, this was caught on film and leaked. The response to this wasn’t horror and commitments to the public that there would be an investigation and those involved would be tried and hung, and processes would be put in place to ensure this horrific abuse never happens again. Instead, Israeli politicians demanded that there be an investigation into who leaked the video, and to use the most severe possible criminal punishments on the leakers, because it harmed the public perception of Israel. Instead, Israeli politicians claimed that because the gangraped individuals (and make no mistake, this is not the only incident, even Israeli sources have documented other cases) were Palestinians, they had no rights and were not even human, and therefore anything could be done to them. Instead, Israeli soldiers stormed the military prison where those soldiers had brutally gangraped the prisoner, and demanded the immediate release of the Israelis. Discovering they were being held at Beit Lid instead, they went there and violently protested and demanded the immediate release of the Israeli soldiers, claiming they had done nothing wrong. Instead, Israeli politicians complimented the gangrapers, claiming they were ‘our best heroes’ and demanding their immediate release. Instead, the Israeli soldiers who participated in the gangrape were invited to talk shows and given favorable presentations. Instead, a member of the Likud party (for those skimming this issue, the ruling party) said that it was ‘legitimate’ to do ‘anything’ to their prisoners, specifically including sodomizing their prisoner with metal bars. So no, Israel doesn’t get to claim the moral high ground of how they treat their hostages.”