Following October 7 events, there are currently 101 Israeli hostages in Gaza strip.
This question resolve YES if at the end of 2025, the Wikipedia page of Israel Hamas Hostage Crisis, say that there is at least one Israeli hostage in Gaza that were abducted in oct 7 (not including the 4 abducted earlier).
Otherwise, this question will resolve as NO.
If there are overwelming evidence (according to global media) that all the hostages are dead, this will also resolve as no.
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@CarmelHadar damn, seems you and me are on an arms race. Half the pool on each side is just us... Not good
@hidetzugu haha, for me it's good. Honestly I think I can convince you that this is about 95% (unfortunately). But I prefer it like that :)
@hidetzugu
BTW, im curious, how do you think this will end? all dead? or all freed? (if freed, how)
@CarmelHadar I expect over 70% dead, maybe a couple of successful rescues. New negotiated releases are unlikely.
I guess my confiance is in thr resolution timeframe. I expect by eoy 2025 to no longer be any uncertainty.
@CarmelHadar How will they be kept hidden for over a year in such a small area entirely controlled by the IDF?
It doesn't has to be hidden .
in the classic hostages situation, the villain keep the hostages close to him, and if someone comes close he shoots. It's easier when you have so many
I believe that idf know where sinwar is, but a hostages group is around him, so they can't bomb him. That what he must do in order to stay alive.
Each other option is very unlikely I think
I agree that 70% already dead.
The way I see it, sinwar will never do a deal about all the hostages, that will be suicidal of him. Even if he will sign on agreement that agrees to release all, he will break it until the end.
Even if they all die, he will have to hide that information, if he want to live.
@CarmelHadar I guess I'm half-expecting than mid-spring next year the invasion will turn from a hot engagement into more of a full control, door-to-door (tunnel to tunnel) operation. We'll see.
I'm fine with my position, I just don't want to over-invest.
@CarmelHadar this may be very difficult to confirm. What if the situation is unclear at the end of the year?
What do you mean by unclear? Even now it's "unclear" if there is alive hostages in Gaza. But unless there is serious evidence that claims otherwise, they considered alive. No if state of Israel declare them all to be dead, that will be serious evidence, if a NYT article, or HAmas claim they all dead, that will consider as a major evidence. However, I'm quite sure that this won't be the case.