Following October 7 events, there are currently 101 Israeli hostages in Gaza strip.
This question resolve YES if at the end of 2025, the Wikipedia page of Israel Hamas Hostage Crisis, say that there is at least one Israeli hostage in Gaza that were abducted in oct 7 (not including the 4 abducted earlier).
Otherwise, this question will resolve as NO.
If there are overwelming evidence (according to global media) that all the hostages are dead, this will also resolve as no.
Update 2025-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Details:
To resolve as NO, there must be clear evidence such as official declarations from the state of Israel stating that all remaining hostages are dead, or definitive actions by Hamas indicating no live hostages remain.
If Hamas claims to still have live hostages and there is no contradictory evidence, the market will resolve as YES.
1,000@Shai yeah i figured, what i actually meant was:
I don't see a reason to update my bet following Trump statements.
To be clear, this question specifically relates to the people who were made hostage on october 7th 2023. Not anyone already a hostage before October 7th. Right?
Also, if on 31st December 2023 there is/are hostage(s) in gaza but its clear to everyone that there arent any alive hostages, how then will you resolve?
Yes, I think I made that clear, this does not include hostages before Oct 7.
I will assume you meant 31 Dec 25.
In that case it will be reslolve as NO. But it should be quite clear, (something like state of Israel post official declaration that all the remaining are dead, or Hamas do something like that, if it's still under dispute, and Hamas will claim they still have live hostages, and there no contradictory evidence, it will resolve as YES)
@smokey
it seems that Hamas fighters found their uniforms, after they couldn't find them since the first day of the war. interesting.
@smokey it's interesting the contrast between how well Hamas treats Israeli hostages (even when they're literally idf) versus how poorly Israel treats palestinian hostages (even when they're obviously innocent children)
@Ammar These girls report sleeping on the floor over long periods, eating as little as one pita a day and being psychologically tortured by being told Israel has been completely destroyed. One of them was held alone in a tunnel.
And this is just what they've opened up about in the few days since they've been released...
I understand you want Palestinians to be treated better by the IDF, and I do too, but lying about Hamas treating hostages well is gross.
@Shai israel bombs most homes and severely limits food from trying to enter gaza. Hamas has to sleep on the floors and eat only a piece of bread a day. Do you expect their hostages to be in mansions and offer buffets?
While in israel rape, amputations, and literal murder of Palestinian hostages with no link to Hamas, many are children.
I'm not steel manning your point, but I don't think I can try while remaining honest. The context is "the contrast between how well Hamas treats Israeli hostages (even when they're literally idf) versus how poorly Israel treats Palestinian hostages". If you're way around that is to focus on the hostages sleeping on the floor likely due to Israel bombing homes, I'm not sure there's room for a productive conversation.
@Ammar What you said simply isn't true. Israel allows hundreds of humanitarian aid trucks to enter Gaza daily, many of which are raided by Hamas, who limit civilian access to them. So no, Hamas members do not "eat only a piece of bread a day".
Israel does not hold Palestinian "hostages". Every single prisoner is either a terrorist with blood on their hands, someone who attempted a terrorist attack, or someone who conspired to commit acts of terror. Even the women and children. (See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pisgat_Ze%27ev_stabbings, https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesofisrael.com/man-hurt-in-jerusalem-terror-stabbing-palestinian-teen-attacker-caught/amp/, https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/palestinian-terrorism/israeli-girl-killed-in-bed-after-stabbing-attack/)
There are also Jewish settlers who are considered terrorists by Israel and up until recently were arrested in the same process.
I don't think you realize what is happening here. Israelis have to deal with stabbing attacks on a daily basis. Sometimes reaching 3 attacks per day.
Hamas is a genocidal terrorist organization, and we saw well in October 7 that their goal is to kill as many Jews as possible. Would you rather we let them continue arming until they succeed?
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1847006929790685652
@CarmelHadar
Footage from Sinwar's last moments. Not quite the "classic hostage situation" you envisioned.
@Shai yeah, quite surprising I must say.
But IDF claims that the 6 hostages that were excuted were near him, but when he was force to leave he excite them, and left with non.
@CarmelHadar damn, seems you and me are on an arms race. Half the pool on each side is just us... Not good
@hidetzugu haha, for me it's good. Honestly I think I can convince you that this is about 95% (unfortunately). But I prefer it like that :)
@hidetzugu
BTW, im curious, how do you think this will end? all dead? or all freed? (if freed, how)
@CarmelHadar I expect over 70% dead, maybe a couple of successful rescues. New negotiated releases are unlikely.
I guess my confiance is in thr resolution timeframe. I expect by eoy 2025 to no longer be any uncertainty.
@CarmelHadar How will they be kept hidden for over a year in such a small area entirely controlled by the IDF?
It doesn't has to be hidden .
in the classic hostages situation, the villain keep the hostages close to him, and if someone comes close he shoots. It's easier when you have so many
I believe that idf know where sinwar is, but a hostages group is around him, so they can't bomb him. That what he must do in order to stay alive.
Each other option is very unlikely I think
I agree that 70% already dead.
The way I see it, sinwar will never do a deal about all the hostages, that will be suicidal of him. Even if he will sign on agreement that agrees to release all, he will break it until the end.
Even if they all die, he will have to hide that information, if he want to live.
@CarmelHadar I guess I'm half-expecting than mid-spring next year the invasion will turn from a hot engagement into more of a full control, door-to-door (tunnel to tunnel) operation. We'll see.
I'm fine with my position, I just don't want to over-invest.