Israel-Iran 2025 war prop bets
16
1.5kṀ1036Dec 31
56%
US bombs Iran’s nuclear facility
52%
Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal
50%
Fordow facility successfully bombed
50%
Iran successfully bomb an Israeli power plant or offshore platform
50%
Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel
45%
Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and tanks for internal use don’t count)
37%
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason
34%
Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz
34%
A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)
31%
Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)
28%
Israel government dissolves
25%
Iran regime change
20%
Iran tests a nuclear weapon
14%
Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)
13%
US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)
Add your own bets.
I will resolve according to publicly available information and my best judgment.
Will be resolved at end of 2025 at the latest.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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