Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?

Question

Resolves as Yes if an official IDF spokesperson declares the IDF has entered the city of Rafah en masse in Gaza.

Surgical raids of limited scope will not count, only a large scale clearing operation. If there is no announcement by the IDF but there is overwhelming video evidence, that will be sufficient for Yes. If resolution is very murky as the month ends, up to a week will be taken after market close to wait for clearer evidence. If Rafah is invaded in April, this market will resolve N/A. Please read the pinned comments and stay updated there.

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Panfilo/will-israel-invade-rafah-in-june-20)

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on May 17, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.