Resolution criteria
This market will resolve based on the total number of Israeli fatalities resulting from Iranian counterattacks during June 2025. The resolution will be determined by official reports from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and reputable news agencies. The outcome will correspond to the answer option that includes the reported number of fatalities.
Background
On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a series of airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and military infrastructure. In response, Iran initiated counterattacks, including the launch of over 100 Shahed drones towards Israel. Some of these drones were intercepted by the Royal Jordanian Air Force over Jordanian airspace, while others were intercepted by the Israeli Air Force over Saudi Arabia and Syria. (en.wikipedia.org)
Considerations
Given the ongoing nature of the conflict and the potential for further escalations, the number of Israeli fatalities may change as new incidents occur throughout June 2025. Traders should monitor official statements from the IDF and updates from reputable news sources to stay informed about the evolving situation.
Update 2025-06-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user question regarding an ambiguity in the answer options, the creator has edited the options to resolve the issue.
Update 2025-06-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user question, the creator clarified what constitutes an Iranian counterattack:
Attacks with a dubious link to Iran will likely not be counted.
Attacks by a confirmed Iranian asset, including domestic terror attacks, will likely be counted.
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@BrunoJ Would lean towards Iran sourced attacks. Like if some fundamentalist just suicide bombs 10 people a week from now and the link is dubious I'd probably err on not counting it. If a confirmed Iranian asset does a domestic terror attack, likely would count it
Israel intercepted basically all of their rockets last time, don't see why this time will be any different. If Iran had more cards they'd have already played them.
Predicting 0 deaths
EDIT: considering the attack left ~35 injured with 1 critically injured, it should take 10x if not more missile volleys like we just saw to reach even 10 deaths. I suspect if Iran was capable of sustaining that kind of missile file they wouldn't have stopped.