I will not bet on this market.
Please feel free to add your own prop bets to the market. Questions may be broad (Nuclear Weapon used in aggression) or specific (Trump's June 22, 2025 Cease-fire declaration is not violated for at least 7 days), but should have clear resolution criteria.
This is a market for prop bets related to any and all military/political conflicts worldwide from 2025 through the end of 2027.
I will do my best to quickly resolve questions correctly in a timely fashion. I tend to pay attention to international news.
All questions, unless specifying a date, must be assumed to have "by midnight UTC ±0 on 31 Dec 2027" as part of their resolution criteria.
I will default to the question creator's resolution criteria when necessary.
To assist in correct and timely resolutions, I encourage traders to post news articles/sources supporting a resolution.
I will edit/remove AI updates that are incorrect and put them under a header for the specific question they pertain to. If an AI update is placed under a question header, it is safe to assume it correctly reflects question resolution
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This answer will resolve to YES only if Jordan becomes a signatory of the specific treaty known as the 'Abraham Accords'. Jordan is not currently a signatory.
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
Update 2025-06-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about whether a suicide linked to a chatbot would count for a hypothetical prop bet, the creator specified their resolution criteria:
There must be a direct correlation between the AI's actions and the death.
The AI must be behaving like a rogue AI (maliciously, unpredictably, or contrary to its programming). An AI acting as it was designed would not meet this bar.
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Update 2025-07-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the prop bet concerning a ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, the creator has specified the resolution criteria:
This will resolve to YES if the current ceasefire lasts for 7 days.
Market Start Date
Update 2025-08-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market covers conflicts from June 25, 2025 through the end of 2027.
1,000People are also trading
@traders I don't know if it's frowned upon, but I'm going to use this comment to cross promote another prop bet market I'm running, this one is just for fun though!
https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/what-will-be-true-of-my-weekly-dung
What will be true of my weekly Dungeons & Dragons games? This one should be unranked and is a far less serious tone than the World Conflict prop bets.
does the pandemic question/option really fit into the scope of this market? interesting and important question i guess, and maybe others like it in the list (ive not reviewed them in some time) but not what i would mentally categorize as a world conflict (especially given the nature of the other options here)
@No_uh I added it after reading about the recent chickungunya outbreak in China that is believed may be a lab leak/release from Chinese labs. Much like the AGI and Fusion energy questions, they have strong potential implications for political issues between nations. I can see the argument both for and against their inclusion though.
The market description clarifies that this market is for both military and political conflict, so I see the scope of it as more than just armed clashes.
@BlackCrusade any link to what you read about chickungunya and a lab leak? havent heard a peep about that, only cases completely without mention of a lab leak.
@BlackCrusade of course they do. theyd probably never heard of it before the news of a small outbreak in guangdong
@TimothyJohnson5c16 let me know if this comment chain needs further clarification or if this answers your question sufficiently!
“The Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs says that many people reportedly continue to be killed and injured, including people seeking food along the UN convoy routes and militarized distribution points. Some 1,500 people have been reportedly killed since May,” Farhan Haq, UN deputy spokesperson, told reporters.
@traders I intend to resolve this yes in 24 hours. Does anyone have any objections? It has been more than 30 days since the ceasefire. My main point of wariness on resolving this as yes is the "publicly accept" because I see that as somewhat grey but am leaning towards the terms of the question being fulfilled.
@traders If the current ceasefire lasts 7 days, this will resolve to yes.
Thailand and Cambodia agreed Monday to an unconditional cease-fire during a meeting in Malaysia, in a significant breakthrough to resolve five days of deadly border clashes that have killed dozens and displaced tens of thousands.
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and Thai Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai agreed to a halt in fighting, starting at midnight, while appearing with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim during a meeting held under US pressure in the Malaysian administrative capital of Putrajaya. The Cambodian and Thai leaders hailed the meeting’s outcome and shook hands at the end of a brief news conference.
The fighting began Thursday after a land mine explosion along the border wounded five Thai soldiers. Both sides blamed each other for starting the clashes, that have killed at least 35 people and displaced more than 260,000 people on both sides.
Seems like this will happen soon: https://www.thetimes.com/world/europe/article/russia-set-to-scrap-its-last-remaining-aircraft-carrier-vf0q67c3h
Thailand and Cambodia have agreed to hold talks in Malaysia on Monday in an attempt to negotiate an end to a conflict that has lasted four days.
Thailand said on Sunday a delegation led by acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai would attend, after US President Donald Trump called the leaders of both countries on Saturday to press for an immediate ceasefire.
The Thai government said it had been told by Malaysia that Cambodian Prime Minister Hum Manet would also attend.
At least 33 soldiers and civilians have been killed while thousands of Thai and Cambodian nationals have been displaced since border fighting broke out on 24 July.
BANGKOK, July 25 (Reuters) - Thailand's foreign ministry said on Friday it agrees in principle with a Malaysian proposal for a ceasefire between Thai and Cambodian forces and will consider the plan, but that it must be based on "appropriate on-the-ground conditions".
"It must be stated that throughout the day, Cambodian forces have continued their indiscriminate attacks on Thai territory," the ministry said in a post on X. "Cambodia’s actions demonstrate a lack of good faith and continue to place civilians in danger."
@BlackCrusade wow, somehow I didn't even know this conflict was happening, near total blind spot in western mainstream media
@JussiVilleHeiskanen comparing the markets, it apparently more likely that Turkey invokes article 4 than for anyone (including turkey) invoking article 4. Sounds like some free Mana to be made.