World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027

4.3kṀ1643

2027

81%

Donald Trump remains President of USA

69%

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

69%

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

59%

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

59%

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

59%

Sudanese Civil War ends

59%

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

57%

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

50%

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace before

50%

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

50%

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

50%

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

50%

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

50%

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

50%

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

50%

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

50%

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

50%

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

50%

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

50%

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

I will not bet on this market.

Please feel free to add your own prop bets to the market. Questions may be broad (Nuclear Weapon used in aggression) or specific (Trump's June 22, 2025 Cease-fire declaration is not violated for at least 7 days), but should have clear resolution criteria.

This is a market for prop bets related to any and all military/political conflicts worldwide from 2025 through the end of 2027.

I will do my best to quickly resolve questions correctly in a timely fashion. I tend to pay attention to international news.

All questions, unless specifying a date, must be assumed to have "by midnight UTC ±0 on 31 Dec 2027" as part of their resolution criteria.

I will default to the question creator's resolution criteria when necessary.

To assist in correct and timely resolutions, I encourage traders to post news articles/sources supporting a resolution.

I will edit/remove AI updates that are incorrect and put them under a header for the specific question they pertain to. If an AI update is placed under a question header, it is safe to assume it correctly reflects question resolution

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This answer will resolve to YES only if Jordan becomes a signatory of the specific treaty known as the 'Abraham Accords'. Jordan is not currently a signatory.

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