Manifold's overall track record.
- The chart shows the probability of a binary market resolving to YES given that the market is currently displaying a probability of x%. Perfect calibration would result in all points being on the line.
- Methodology: 2% of all past bets in public resolved binary markets with 10 or more traders are sampled to get the average probability before and after the bet. This probability is then bucketed and used to compute the proportion of markets that resolve YES. Sample size: 0 bets. Updates every hour.
- This methodology uses trade-weighted rather than time-weighted calibration, which may significantly undercount overall calibration, given that users who place large miscalibrated bets are more likely to be corrected immediately.
- Brier score: 0
More charts courtesy of @wasabipesto; originally found here.