I'm shocked that the real money markets put only a 2 in 3 chance on Biden winning the Dem nomination. With a 15% chance of resigning, that's a 1 in 5 chance of being primaried or dying in office.

@EricMoyer I am too!

@EricMoyer Wait, they have him that low??? That's absurd. I don't know the base rates for "sitting President gets primaried" and "80 year old in decent shape with access to insanely good health care suddenly dies within a year and a half," but the sum of them has gotta be way lower than 20%.

@evergreenemily The last time a sitting president got primaried was LBJ 56 years ago. To be fair, that was largely because RFK entered the race 🤔🤔🤔