Who will be the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee?
59
2.3kṀ5531
resolved Aug 6
100%97%
Kamala Harris
0.3%Other
1.0%
Joe Biden
0.0%
Pete Buttigieg
0.0%
Barack Obama
0.0%
Elizabeth Warren
0.0%
Amy Klobuchar
0.0%
Stacey Abrams
0.0%
Hillary Clinton
0.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
0.0%
Bernie Sanders
0.0%
Eric Garcetti
0.4%
Gavin Newsom
0.0%
Andrew Yang
0.0%
Cory Booker
0.0%
Beto O'Rourke
0.0%
Andrew Cuomo
0.0%
Not Joe Biden
0.0%
Jared Polis
0.8%
Raphael Warnock
Feb 17, 9:56pm: In the event of more than one answer being correct, this market will resolve to the earliest answer created.
Politics
US Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
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https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-be-the-dem?r=RGFuaWVsX01D

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the Democratic Party nominee for the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
10% chance.

Same here for arbitrage:

@ManifoldMarkets how bet

🤔 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination

🧐 https://polymarket.com/market-group/who-will-win-the-US-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination

Long shot but definitely higher than 1%. Wouldn't be surprised if she pivots there after losing the GA governor race again.
The sports books and Polymarket give Kamala Harris somewhat more probability than was given here.
Still incredibly unlikely, but I can't not root for Psychedelic Warlord
Governor of New York from 2011 to 2021
Former representative for Texas' 16th district and Democratic primary candidate
Senator for New Jersey and Democratic primary candidate
Businessman and 2020 Democratic primary candidate
Governor of California
Mayor of Los Angeles
Not sure why Obama is even an option here since he is ineligible for another term.

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