Who will be the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee?
Politicsโ€ขUS Politicsโ€ข2024 US Presidential Election
45
130
Sep 1
88%
Joe Biden
3%
Kamala Harris
0.7%
Pete Buttigieg
0%
Barack Obama
0.3%
Elizabeth Warren
0%
Amy Klobuchar
0.2%
Stacey Abrams
0%
Hillary Clinton
0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
0.9%
Bernie Sanders
0.1%
Eric Garcetti
3%
Gavin Newsom
0.1%
Andrew Yang
0.1%
Cory Booker
0.1%
Beto O'Rourke
0.1%
Andrew Cuomo
0%
Not Joe Biden
0.8%
Jared Polis
1.5%
Raphael Warnock
1%
Robert Kennedy Jr
Feb 17, 9:56pm: In the event of more than one answer being correct, this market will resolve to the earliest answer created.
Get แน€200 play money

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bought แน€10 of Robert Kennedy Jr

https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-be-the-dem?r=RGFuaWVsX01D

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the Democratic Party nominee for the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
10% chance.

Same here for arbitrage:

answered
Hillary Clinton

@ManifoldMarkets how bet

๐Ÿค” https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination

๐Ÿง https://polymarket.com/market-group/who-will-win-the-US-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination

answered
Stacey Abrams
bought แน€5
Long shot but definitely higher than 1%. Wouldn't be surprised if she pivots there after losing the GA governor race again.
The sports books and Polymarket give Kamala Harris somewhat more probability than was given here.
bought แน€1 of Beto O'Rourke
Still incredibly unlikely, but I can't not root for Psychedelic Warlord
bought แน€1 of Andrew Cuomo
Governor of New York from 2011 to 2021
bought แน€1 of Beto O'Rourke
Former representative for Texas' 16th district and Democratic primary candidate
bought แน€1 of Cory Booker
Senator for New Jersey and Democratic primary candidate
bought แน€1 of Andrew Yang
Businessman and 2020 Democratic primary candidate
bought แน€1 of Gavin Newsom
Governor of California
bought แน€1 of Eric Garcetti
Mayor of Los Angeles
bought แน€10 of Kamala Harris
Not sure why Obama is even an option here since he is ineligible for another term.

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