This market resolves YES if Indonesia's total cobalt mine production exceeded 55,000 tonnes in calendar year 2026, as reported in the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries.

What is measured: Total cobalt production from Indonesian mining operations (primarily the HPAL facilities at Morowali and Weda Bay industrial parks on Sulawesi and Halmahera islands) for the full calendar year January–December 2026, measured on a contained-cobalt basis. The USGS publishes its annual Mineral Commodity Summaries each February, covering the prior calendar year; this market settles December 31, 2027, by which point 2026 data has been public for roughly ten months.

YES if: USGS or Cobalt Institute annual data shows Indonesian cobalt production at or above 55,000 tonnes for 2026.

NO if: Indonesian cobalt production for 2026 is below 55,000 tonnes.

Resolution sources (priority order):

1. USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — cobalt section (pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs)

2. Cobalt Institute Annual Market Review (cobaltinstitute.org)

3. Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources production statistics (minerba.esdm.go.id)