Conditional on Trump/Biden winning the 2024 presidential, will there be a large scale rioting in the US before 2026 ?
Conditional on Trump/Biden winning the 2024 presidential, will there be a large scale rioting in the US before 2026 ?
33
1kṀ89862026
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
86%
Trump wins ; there is no large scale rioting before 2026
14%
Trump wins ; there is a large scale rioting before 2026
1%
Biden wins ; there is no large scale rioting before 2026
There should be no N/A resolution !
Due to the pivot, I can’t make real conditional markets so these are about joint probabilities. Each option will resolve YES if and only if both statements (about elections ; about riots) come true and NO otherwise. Which means if Trump or Biden wins the election, then exactly one option should resolve YES and three should resolve NO.
Before 2026 means by 31st December, 2025.
For whether there is a large-scale rioting, I will defer to this market :
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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