Conditional on Trump/Biden winning the 2024 presidential, will there be a large scale rioting in the US before 2026 ?
Basic
19
Ṁ3.0k2026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
51%
Trump wins ; there is no large scale rioting before 2026
31%
Biden wins ; there is a large scale rioting before 2026
27%
Biden wins ; there is no large scale rioting before 2026
21%
Trump wins ; there is a large scale rioting before 2026
There should be no N/A resolution !
Due to the pivot, I can’t make real conditional markets so these are about joint probabilities. Each option will resolve YES if and only if both statements (about elections ; about riots) come true and NO otherwise. Which means if Trump or Biden wins the election, then exactly one option should resolve YES and three should resolve NO.
Before 2026 means by 31st December, 2025.
For whether there is a large-scale rioting, I will defer to this market :
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Conditional on the 2024 election being a Trump-Biden rematch, will Trump win?
61% chance
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2026?
35% chance
Will the United States elect a new president in 2024 (Biden or Trump)?
92% chance
Conditional on Donald Trump being indicted before the 2024 presidential election, will he win said election?
45% chance
Conditional on being convicted before Election Day 2024, will Trump win the 2024 election?
47% chance
If Trump wins, will there be wide scale civil disorder in the weeks following the election?
38% chance
Will there be significant social unrest, protests, riots, etc. over the results of the 2024 presidential election?
78% chance
If the Republicans do not win the US 2024 election, will the civil unrest 'trump' the 2020 civil unrest after Biden won?
31% chance
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2025?
21% chance
Conditional on Biden being elected president in 2024, will a Democrat also be elected in 2028?
50% chance