Will Trump be assassinated during his second term?
43
1kṀ50872029
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Donald Trump dies by homicide while being president (during the term beginning 1/20/2025.)
Resolves NO if Donald Trump finishes his time in office alive OR dies of any cause while president excluding homicide.
Clarifications:
If Donald Trump is replaced as president by an acting President due to incapacitation caused by an assassination attempt (25th constitutional amendment) AND later dies from injuries/complications before 1/20/2029, the market resolves YES.
Trump’s term is considered over when his 4 year term expires, or earlier if he resigns or is removed from office.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Donald Trump be assassinated before the end of his presidency?
11% chance
Conditional on trump being reelected in 2024, will he become a dictator?
12% chance
Will there be any assassination attempt on Donald Trump during the term of his presidency?
42% chance
Conditional on Trump assuming the presidency in 2025, will he be ousted by a military coup?
7% chance
If Trump is elected POTUS in 2024, will he be impeached and removed from office by January 31, 2026?
5% chance
If Donald Trump wins the election, will he die while in office?
18% chance
Will there be a second assassination attempt on Trump before 2027?
62% chance
If Trump is assassinated will it be while visiting another country?
11% chance
Will Donald Trump die of assassination?
13% chance
Will there be an assassination attempt on Trump during his second presidency?
55% chance