Conditional on Trump winning the presidency in 2024, will he be assassinated in office?
➕
Plus
34
Ṁ3628
2029
16%
chance

Resolves YES if Donald Trump is elected President in the 2024 presidential election AND dies by homicide while being president (the term beginning 1/20/2025.)

Resolves NO if Donald Trump is elected President in the 2024 presidential election AND finishes his time in office alive OR dies of any cause while president excluding homicide.

Resolve N/A (market cancels) if Donald Trump is not elected President in the 2024 presidential election.

Clarifications:

  • If Donald Trump is replaced as president by an acting President due to incapacitation caused by an assassination attempt (25th constitutional amendment) AND later dies from injuries/complications before 1/20/2029, the market resolves YES.

  • Trump’s term is considered over when his 4 year term expires, or earlier if he resigns or is removed from office.

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Ṁ1,000
and
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bought Ṁ51 NO

This seems high, the base rate is 8.6%

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