@strutheo I think this resolves YES: Iran launches missile attack on Israel for Nasrallah killing (cnbc.com).

Also
https://www.ft.com/content/e053817b-9f15-4b3e-af58-b106a8fed087
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-iran-hezbollah-conflict

Well, this happened... it seems to have ended for now....

@FergusArgyll I expect a few more exchanges tonight and/or throughout the week. The shit's only getting started.

@ICRainbow

It's not as fun when you're actually under fire....

They're reporting that there's no known injuries so that's good

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1841113345409036543?t=xONKzHzQ9uRRXaTNw9UlWA&s=19

Iranian attack expected tonight

https://www.politico.eu/article/benjamin-netanyahu-iran-regime-change-video-israel-hezbollah-war/

Must the attack successfully strike Israeli territory or is an attempt enough?

an attempt at the scale similar to last time would count even if no missles / drones get through the dome. i feel like if its a one-off shot it will be hard to confirm if its even iran, so i will have to judge

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iranian-foreign-minister-vows-calculated-response-to-israel-over-haniyeh-killing/

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/11/iran-attack-israel-intelligence-updated

When will Iran retaliate?

https://manifold.markets/Lemming/by-which-day-will-iran-directly-att?r=TGVtbWluZw

iran ordered an attack.... we'll see how fast it comes https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/middleeast/iran-orders-attack-israel.html

.

Does an Iranian-backed organization count?

That would be pretty much constant, no?

Which organization? This was meant to be the Iran state but I can see some counting

news bump

.

This has happened, no?

Oh sorry misread this, thought it was Israel -> Iran

@strutheo It might be worth clarifying if this refers to attacks within Israeli territory or also attacks on Israeli troops in other countries.

The country yes . Added

I wonder how much this depends on an escalation between Israel and Hezbollah. Therefore, I have created a conditional market. I hope some will find it interesting.