Must the attack successfully strike Israeli territory or is an attempt enough?

an attempt at the scale similar to last time would count even if no missles / drones get through the dome. i feel like if its a one-off shot it will be hard to confirm if its even iran, so i will have to judge

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iranian-foreign-minister-vows-calculated-response-to-israel-over-haniyeh-killing/

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/11/iran-attack-israel-intelligence-updated

When will Iran retaliate?

https://manifold.markets/Lemming/by-which-day-will-iran-directly-att?r=TGVtbWluZw

iran ordered an attack.... we'll see how fast it comes https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/middleeast/iran-orders-attack-israel.html

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Does an Iranian-backed organization count?

That would be pretty much constant, no?

Which organization? This was meant to be the Iran state but I can see some counting

news bump

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This has happened, no?

Oh sorry misread this, thought it was Israel -> Iran

@strutheo It might be worth clarifying if this refers to attacks within Israeli territory or also attacks on Israeli troops in other countries.

The country yes . Added

I wonder how much this depends on an escalation between Israel and Hezbollah. Therefore, I have created a conditional market. I hope some will find it interesting.

tit meet tat

surprised this is so high, is this mainly based on the assumption that israel will retaliate?

@strutheo yes, seems likely that Israel will use this opportunity to really hurt Iran's strategic interests. This increases the likelihood of a response, at least at the low threshold of drones

No proxies?

@simoj no proxies

will iran attack israel again?