Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?
777
4.3kแน€240k
resolved Dec 31
Resolved
YES
@RobertSutherland Oh damn targeted assassination is on the list!!
@BTE https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67820538 Wikipedia linking to BBC, both calling it an Israeli strike. I don't think Israel is going to "claim credit" for the strike, much less it being a targeted assassination. Are the Iranian claims enough to resolve yes absent any additional confirmation in the next few days?

This question will only resolve YES for direct engagement between Iran and Israel. Here are some potential scenarios that would each independently resolve YES:

  • Israel conducting airstrikes on targets inside Iran and/or the Iranians shooting down Israeli aircraft in Iranian airspace. Any airstrikes must be acknowledged by Israel and unambiguously NOT conducted by the US.

  • Targeted assassinations conducted by either side against government or military leaders of the other regardless of where they take place.

  • If it is shown Iran has boots on the ground in Gaza operating alongside Hamas or even directing their operation tactically in theater that would count, but ID needs to be irrefutable or acknowledged by Tehran.

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