Will any of the (in)famous AI markets resolve in favour of AI hype?
Will any of the (in)famous AI markets resolve in favour of AI hype?
24
1kṀ1799
2100
84%
chance
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
bought Ṁ400 YES7mo

Seems like >80%, given the IMO stuff.

predictedNO 1y

The AIs are the ones betting no and the humans are the ones betting yes. Really makes you think…

predictedNO 1y

Acceleration is my only friend ;-;

1y

@ItsMe "Nothing ever happens" - but ten nothings? Nah.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules