In total output, real-world use, plus prestige (open labs attracting the best talent)
PROB resolution--2022 would have resolved ~70-80% YES
Based on informed (and uninformed) comments, search trends, random Twitter hive minding, etc.
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I can imagine it in the image generation space, since open models like Stable Diffusion have a level of customization that proprietary ones lack, and in this space it matters a lot. Even as Stability AI fumbles, there is a large amount of open-source efforts in this space picking up the slack.
I have a hard time seeing this happen to LLMs due to both the prohibitive cost of training them and the proprietary LLMs being "good enough" for consumer use cases.
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