
Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?
69
closes 2026
24%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ40 +306.0%
New probability
25% +0.5%
In total output, real-world use, plus prestige (open labs attracting the best talent)
PROB resolution--2022 would have resolved ~70-80% YES
Based on informed (and uninformed) comments, search trends, random Twitter hive minding, etc.
Get Ṁ500 play money
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0 YES payouts
Ṁ3,636
Ṁ112
Ṁ108
Ṁ100
Ṁ75
Ṁ31
Ṁ30
Ṁ30
Ṁ29
Ṁ28
Ṁ26
Ṁ26
Ṁ25
Ṁ16
Ṁ15
Ṁ3
0 NO payouts
Ṁ3,798
Ṁ278
Ṁ193
Ṁ133
Ṁ107
Ṁ95
Ṁ82
Ṁ73
Ṁ64
Ṁ49
Ṁ33
Ṁ29
Ṁ18
Ṁ16



























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