Will AI agents be used to develop software commercially by the end of 2023?
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Will Stability AI go bankrupt in 2024?
Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023?
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?
Will any AI solve >=50 IMO problems by the start of 2024?
Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?
🐕 Will A.I. Be Able to Make Significantly Better, "Common Sense Judgements About What Happens Next," by End of 2023?
Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2023?
By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?
Will AI spread through malware before 2025?
Will there be another major public-facing breakthrough in AI before March 31, 2024 [subjective - 1000M subsidy added]
By 2025, will Google be in a winning position in the "AI war" against Microsoft?
Will a business run by AI make more than 1 million USD in profit before 2025?
Will there be an AI CEO by 2040?
Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
Will Donald Trump propose a solution for the existential threat of AI by the end of 2023?
Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2023?