Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward] | Manifold

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

22

1kṀ1543

2028

16%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

/JamesDillard/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th

/EliezerYudkowsky/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r

/IsaacKing/if-humanity-survives-to-2100-what-w

/IsaacKing/will-this-market-still-exist-at-the

None of these actually work. The basic mechanics that make (traditional) prediction markets accurate do not apply when traders will value mana differently if the market resolves one way than if it resolves the other, or if there's no profit incentive at all.

Moreover, the existance of these sorts of markets and people who cite them as though they were credible discredits prediction markets and those people in general in the eyes of economically-savvy outsiders. Figuring out a way to reward honest bets on on human extinction would be an extremely useful innovation for anyone concerned about existential risk, as it would allow humanity to get a concrete, empirical estimate of its likelyhood to convince the general public.

I've placed a M$50,000 limit order on NO, as a reward for anyone who can figure out how to resolve this to YES.

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