Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward] | Manifold

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

22

1kṀ1543

2028

16%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

/JamesDillard/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th

/EliezerYudkowsky/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r

/IsaacKing/if-humanity-survives-to-2100-what-w

/IsaacKing/will-this-market-still-exist-at-the

None of these actually work. The basic mechanics that make (traditional) prediction markets accurate do not apply when traders will value mana differently if the market resolves one way than if it resolves the other, or if there's no profit incentive at all.

Moreover, the existance of these sorts of markets and people who cite them as though they were credible discredits prediction markets and those people in general in the eyes of economically-savvy outsiders. Figuring out a way to reward honest bets on on human extinction would be an extremely useful innovation for anyone concerned about existential risk, as it would allow humanity to get a concrete, empirical estimate of its likelyhood to convince the general public.

I've placed a M$50,000 limit order on NO, as a reward for anyone who can figure out how to resolve this to YES.

Meta-Forecasting

Predictions on Predictions

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will X integrate with any prediction market by the end of the 2025?

By 2030, there will be a prediction market w/ 1M+ MAU that resolves predictions using an AI model exclusively

Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

By the end of 2025, will I know about megagame/wargame, which used prediction markets?

Will any of the (in)famous AI markets resolve in favour of AI hype?

If AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?

Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?" market be above 5% on January 1, 2029 12:00AM EST?

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

Will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets targeting timelines under 100 years be above 50%?

Will prediction markets be able to predict the month any given person would die by > 95% by 2035?

Related questions

Will X integrate with any prediction market by the end of the 2025?

By 2030, there will be a prediction market w/ 1M+ MAU that resolves predictions using an AI model exclusively

Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

By the end of 2025, will I know about megagame/wargame, which used prediction markets?

Will any of the (in)famous AI markets resolve in favour of AI hype?

If AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?

Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?" market be above 5% on January 1, 2029 12:00AM EST?

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

Will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets targeting timelines under 100 years be above 50%?

Will prediction markets be able to predict the month any given person would die by > 95% by 2035?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy